The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning about the rapid intensification of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, expected to develop strongly from July to September 2026. This development is linked to a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with sea-surface temperature anomalies forecasted to exceed 2°C in monitored regions.
WMO scientist Alvaro Silva stated, “El Niño will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Niño years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels.” The organization highlighted that more blistering heatwaves and other weather extremes are becoming increasingly likely worldwide in the coming months.
On land, the outlook is concerning. WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis noted that July marks the start of the traditionally hottest month, yet record-breaking temperatures were already observed in June across parts of Europe. For example, Germany recorded a new national temperature high of 41.7°C.
The WMO update also points to a prolonged and dangerous heatwave in the central and eastern United States lasting into the Independence Day weekend, as flagged by the US National Weather Service. Drier weather is forecast for parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia during the monsoon season, while East Africa may experience wetter conditions and potential flooding from September to December, possibly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole.
In response to the El Niño alert, the WMO and its global partners have launched an unprecedented mobilization to provide timely forecasts aimed at saving lives and protecting livelihoods. Countries have been urged to act on this warning to mitigate the impacts of the expected climate events.
“The intensity of El Niño is important because it increases the likelihood of major weather and climate events in different parts of the world, on top of long-term climate change due to human activities,” the WMO emphasized.
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