The ongoing United States-Israel war on Iran has caused the most significant disruption to merchant shipping since the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Al Jazeera. Since the conflict began in late February 2026, shipping lines have encountered attacks on vessels, delays, and increased operating costs.

However, analysts suggest the shipping industry, known for its resilience, is likely to return to a status quo over the long term. Shipping firms are expected to incorporate risk more explicitly into their expenses and diversify supply chains where possible.

Data from the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) shows that during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, global container shipping volumes fell by only 1.2 percent compared to the previous year. By January 2021, cargo volumes at ports worldwide had surpassed pre-pandemic levels, rising 6.4 percent year-on-year, according to the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.

Following a sharp drop from 3.2 million TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) to 74,000 TEU by mid-June 2026, container capacity in the affected region has rebounded to pre-war levels on some routes, as reported by Xeneta, an ocean and air freight rate market analytics platform. Capacity between Asia and the United States’ West Coast recently exceeded its pre-conflict record, reaching 350,000 TEU.

These developments indicate a recovery trajectory for global shipping despite recent upheavals.

Sources