The Democratic Party continues to hold a slim edge in their bid to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming November midterm elections, according to a poll released on Saturday, July 18, 2026.

A Washington Post-Ipsos survey found that among registered voters, 48 percent favor Democratic candidates while 45 percent support Republican candidates for the House. Among those who are “absolutely certain” to vote in House races this fall, 53 percent lean toward Democrats compared to 45 percent for Republicans.

The poll attributes this divide to an "enthusiasm gap" between the parties’ bases, with Democrats reportedly more energized to regain control of the lower chamber. Democrats are also 10 points more likely than Republicans to be certain they will vote this year.

Challenges for Republican candidates include dissatisfaction within their party over the Trump administration’s handling of the war with Iran, affordability issues, and the president’s general unpopularity. Economic and job concerns remain a top issue for 54 percent of respondents when considering their midterm vote.

Additionally, 21 percent of respondents expressed distrust in both parties' ability to handle the economy, and 20 percent felt neither party is concerned with the needs of people like them.

This poll aligns with a recent forecast from Decision Desk HQ, which predicted a 226-209 advantage for Democrats in the House after the midterms, while the Senate is expected to remain evenly split at 50-50.

Sources