A recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) Granite State Poll reveals a significant shift in the hypothetical 2028 Republican presidential nomination race in New Hampshire, the state known for holding the first GOP primary for over a century.

Vice President JD Vance currently leads with 36% support among likely GOP primary voters, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged to 26%, a dramatic increase from Rubio's previous 7% in February's UNH survey. Earlier this year, Rubio also finished a close second to Vance in the 2028 Republican nomination straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Vance has been widely regarded as the heir apparent to term-limited President Donald Trump and his MAGA and America First base. Despite Vance maintaining a lead, Rubio’s growing appeal in key early-voting states has narrowed the gap nationally. Rubio, who ran unsuccessfully against Trump in the 2016 Republican primary, has expressed support for Vance if he launches a 2028 campaign.

Podcast host Ben Ferguson highlighted the dynamic between the two, noting Vance’s role in recent diplomacy efforts and Rubio’s increasing popularity. Ferguson remarked, "There's nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense."

While Vance remains the clear frontrunner, some internal party tensions exist, with divisive stories from certain donors described as unhelpful. Rubio is regarded by some as "the greatest secretary of state in history" and is considered one of Vance’s closest friends within the administration.

The 2028 Republican primary race is not expected to fully commence until after the midterm elections in autumn 2026.

Sources