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Super El Niño Expected to Cause Major Economic Losses Across Africa

African Development Bank warns of a $10 billion to $20 billion economic impact and lasting effects on GDP due to a strong El Niño event.

Jul 27, 2026, 8:08 AM Africanews

El Niñoperson Africantopic African Development Bankorganization African Developmentperson GDPorganization Anthony Nyongperson Ombaka Villageperson Climatetopic Middle Eastperson Pacific Oceanperson Cause Major Economic Losses Across Africatopic Super El Niño Expectedperson

The arrival of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean triggers a cascade of changes in tropical rainfall and wind patterns that echo around the globe. For the United States, the most significant impact is a shift in the path of the mid-latitude jet streams. These swift, high-level winds play a major role in separating warm and cool air masses and steering storms from the Pacific across the U.S. This map illustrates the typical impacts of El Niño on U.S. winter weather. During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream is more reliable across the southern tier of the United States. Southern and interior Alaska and the Pacific Northwest tend to be warmer than average, and the southern tier of U.S. states—from California to the Carolinas—tends to be wetter than average. Farther north, the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Valleys may be drier than usual. One or more of these climate patterns have occurred during many El Niño events in the past. That doesn’t mean that all of these impacts happen during every episode. Every event is somewhat different. In other words, the influence of El Niño on U.S. winter climate is a matter of probability, not certainty. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that swings back and forth every 3-7 years on average. El Niño and La Niña alternately warm and cool large areas of the tropical Pacific—the world’s largest ocean—which significantly influences where and how much it rains there. Like a boulder dropped into a stream, this shift in the location of tropical rainfall disrupts the atmospheric circulation patterns that connect the tropics with the middle latitudes, which in turn modifies the mid-latitude jet streams. By modifying the jet streams, El Niño and La Niña can affect temperature and precipitation across the United States and other parts of the world. The influence on the U.S. is strongest during the winter (December-February), but it may linger into early spring. · Photo by NOAAClimategov · Public domain · Source: wikimedia

Climate experts have issued warnings about an impending "super" El Niño event that is expected to negatively impact African economies and trigger mass migration from severely affected areas. According to specialists from the African Development Bank, the event could inflict a combined economic loss ranging from $10 billion to $20 billion across affected countries in Africa.

Anthony Nyong, the bank's director for climate change and green growth, stated that the GDP of heavily impacted countries could decline by one to two percent on average. While no detailed country-by-country breakdown was provided, Nyong cautioned that the effects are unlikely to be isolated incidents and may persist for several years.

Forecasters have noted that this naturally occurring weather pattern could become one of the strongest ever recorded if current warming trends in the Pacific Ocean continue. A super El Niño is characterized by sea surface temperatures exceeding two degrees Celsius above normal in the central Pacific.

The previous 2023 to 2024 El Niño event led to widespread crop failures, surging food prices, and record-breaking sea-level rises along Africa's coastlines. The African Development Bank estimates that African farmers have already lost nearly $330 million in income this year, compounded by high energy prices and fertilizer supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East. Additionally, the fishing industries face significant risks due to rising sea temperatures and increased storm activity.

A poignant image from April 17, 2024, shows a family using a canoe to escape floodwaters in Ombaka Village, Kisumu, Kenya, illustrating the human impact of these climate events.

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