Larry Rhoden (R) is projected to defeat businessman Toby Doeden in the Republican primary runoff for South Dakota governor held on Tuesday, July 29, 2026, according to Decision Desk HQ. Rhoden will now face Democrat Dan Ahlers, a former state senator, in the November general election. Given South Dakota's reliably Republican leanings, Rhoden is expected to retain the governorship.

The runoff was necessitated after no candidate in the initial June primary, including Representative Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and state House Speaker Jon Hansen, reached the required 35 percent threshold. In that primary, Doeden placed first with about 31 percent of the vote, followed by Rhoden with 25 percent.

Rhoden became governor in January 2025 after former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem (R) resigned to join the Trump administration. While Johnson has not publicly endorsed either runoff candidate, he told KELOLAND that he is privately assisting one of them. Hansen has not publicly commented on the race since his primary loss.

Sources