Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the election handicapper at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, upgraded its prediction for Democratic Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff’s 2026 reelection bid from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic” on Thursday, July 30th, 2026.

The revision reflects Ossoff’s strong fundraising performance, having raised over $20 million in the second quarter of 2026 and holding $42 million on hand. In contrast, his Republican opponent, Mike Collins, raised just over $2 million during the same period and has a similar amount available, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

In addition to Ossoff’s Senate race, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted five House races from leaning Republican to toss-ups. These include contests involving Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.).

The report noted that Democrats do not enjoy the same robust lead they had in the 2018 midterm cycle but maintain an average 5-6 point advantage in generic House ballot polling. However, Sabato’s Crystal Ball cautioned that poor Democratic candidates could cost the party seats, while Republicans might gain ground through better campaign coordination and potential financial support from former President Trump’s MAGA Inc.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s managing editor, Kyle Kondik, had previously predicted Ossoff’s reelection as likely earlier in the year.

Sources