Political analyst Nate Silver reported on Thursday, July 31st, 2026, that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has reached a new low in his second term. This decline coincides with the ongoing unpopular war with Iran and soaring gas prices.

Silver noted on the social platform X that the timing of the approval drop "lines up remarkably well with gas prices and the resumption of hostilities in Iran."

The prolonged military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for about 20 percent of global oil supplies. As the war approaches six months, the average U.S. gas price rose to approximately $4.11 per gallon, up from about $3.15 a year earlier, according to AAA.

Recent polls reflect public dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the Middle East conflict. A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday showed 58 percent of voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while only 32 percent approved. Similarly, an AP-NORC poll on Wednesday found Trump’s approval at 33 percent, down 4 points from their previous survey and the lowest since his return to the White House.

According to Decision Desk HQ, Trump’s overall average approval rating stood at 40.6 percent on Friday morning, with a disapproval rating of 57.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac survey also revealed that 60 percent of U.S. voters oppose the war, marking the highest opposition level since the conflict began in February. Nearly three-quarters of Americans expressed opposition to deploying U.S. troops to Iran.

These figures underscore growing public concern over the administration’s approach to the Middle East and its domestic economic impact.

Sources