Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by a margin of 51 percent to 48 percent among voters, according to a Fox News poll released on Thursday, August 1st, 2026. This lead is notable as Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas in over three decades.

The poll suggests Talarico is gaining support from a significant portion of Republican voters, with nearly one in four non-MAGA Republicans indicating they would vote for him instead of Paxton. Paxton, despite receiving former President Donald Trump's endorsement over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, has faced challenges uniting the GOP due to ongoing legal troubles and scandals, including felony securities fraud charges, an impeachment, and an extramarital affair.

Fox News’s Garret Tenney commented on Friday, August 2nd, that the results offer Democrats “some hope” for a win in Texas, highlighting the lasting impact of the GOP primary on Paxton's standing, especially among Republican voters. Tenney noted, “The brutal GOP primary with John Cornyn is having a lingering impact on how voters feel about Ken Paxton — particularly Republican voters. Why is that? Well, one reason is that more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than they are that Talarico is too extreme.”

The poll also found that 59 percent of overall voters in Texas have serious concerns about Paxton's character, while 47 percent are worried that Talarico's ideology is too progressive. Talarico has been criticized by Republicans for supporting transgender rights and Medicare for All. Despite these concerns, roughly 80 percent of supporters for both candidates said their choice is based mainly on the candidates' positions on issues rather than personal qualities.

Sources