The United States is entrenched in a prolonged conflict with Iran, with no clear exit strategy after more than five months of intermittent bombing have failed to bring Tehran closer to surrender. Recurring threats by US President Donald Trump to launch a massive military campaign have not compelled Iran to comply with US demands.

The war, initiated by the Trump administration in late February 2026, was justified in part by concerns over Iran's nuclear program. Following attacks by the US and Israel, Iran responded by threatening maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing this critical passage.

Despite a US military budget over 100 times larger than Iran's, the US has been unable to prevent Iran from maintaining a significant military presence that threatens maritime traffic through the strait. This is attributed to the hardline stance of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which believes the US and Israel aim to eliminate the Islamic Republic.

Political pressures on the US are mounting due to dwindling stocks of critical weapons, declining approval ratings ahead of midterm elections, and a looming global economic crisis caused by commodity shortages linked to the closed Strait of Hormuz.

Given these challenges, experts argue that the least detrimental option for the US is to allow the diplomatic process outlined in Article 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), signed in June 2026, to proceed. This article mandates that "The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz." The US is advised to provide input to Oman as needed and approve any final settlement reached.

This approach reflects a shift from military confrontation to diplomatic engagement, acknowledging the limitations of US power in resolving the conflict unilaterally.

Sources