Oil shipments from Russia's western ports are expected to rise by 4% in August 2026 compared to July, driven by drone attacks on domestic refineries that have increased crude availability for export and robust demand from Asia, according to two traders.

Exports from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, along with the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, are projected to reach approximately 2.7 million barrels per day in August, based on preliminary trader data. This marks an increase from July's 2.6 million barrels per day, when repeated Ukrainian attacks disrupted loadings at Novorossiysk.

Despite near-capacity loadings, ongoing strikes and a shortage of available shipping tonnage may limit export volumes, the traders noted.

High demand for Russian oil in Asia is supported by ongoing unrest in the Middle East, which has disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has kept prices for Russia's Urals crude firm, with differentials for delivery to India in late August and September firming to minus $2 to $3 per barrel relative to Brent, as reported by Reuters.

Chinese refiners have also increased purchases of Russian oil, including most of the Russian ESPO Blend for September-loading cargoes, at narrower discounts due to Middle East supply disruptions.

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