The United States faces a significant strategic setback five months after initiating the Iran war, reportedly influenced by Israel, according to Middle East observers. Despite US President Donald Trump’s daily ultimatums and expressed optimism about reaching a deal, Iran is unlikely to relinquish its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

Iran views its leverage over the global economy through control of the strait as its greatest asset in a conflict it cannot win militarily. After concluding that a June 17 memorandum of understanding with the US is effectively defunct, Iran is prepared to absorb all military retaliation the Trump administration can deliver.

The conflict has escalated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and their Axis of Resistance allies targeting energy infrastructure and supply chains in the Red Sea, Suez Canal, and eastern Mediterranean. Nations including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt have been targeted, with Syria potentially next.

Late on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described ongoing negotiations with Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as "forward-looking," stating a deal could be reached "if certain third parties do not obstruct this process."

This situation leaves the US with two stark options: capitulate to Iran’s demands or risk a prolonged conflict.

Sources