The United States faces a significant strategic setback five months after initiating conflict with Iran, observers in the Middle East suggest. Despite US President Donald Trump’s daily ultimatums and hopes for a deal, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to relinquish its newfound control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

Iran views its leverage over the global economy through control of the strait as its greatest asset in a conflict it cannot win militarily. Having effectively ended its June 17 memorandum of understanding with the US, Iran is prepared to endure all military actions the Trump administration may impose.

The Revolutionary Guards and their Axis of Resistance allies have intensified attacks on energy infrastructure and supply routes in the Red Sea, Suez Canal, and eastern Mediterranean, with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt already targeted and Syria potentially next.

On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described ongoing negotiations with Oman regarding a proposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as "forward-looking," adding that a deal would be reached "if certain third parties do not obstruct this process."

This situation leaves the US with stark choices: capitulate to Iran’s control or risk a prolonged conflict in the region.

Sources

  • South China Morning Post World, "How US became trapped in ‘dreadful situation’ of its own making over Iran war," August 6, 2026, by Tom Hussain link