Six months after US and Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran, killing its supreme leader and injuring his successor, the Iranian government remains in power despite enduring a severe economic siege. The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, has evolved from missile and air strikes to a focus on Iran's oil revenues, banking system, and international trade partners.

On Monday, Washington announced new measures aimed at cutting off the financial lifelines that sustain Iran's economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the United States will restrict Tehran's oil exports and access to hard currency through a US-led naval blockade.

However, Iran is betting that US President Donald Trump will not fully enforce secondary sanctions against countries like China and India, which continue to support its economy. This has led to a costly stalemate, with Tehran believing it has time on its side.

Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, commented, “The [Trump] administration is groping in a sort of desperate fashion to try to find a pathway out of this.”

Sources