Who will shape post-war Iran?

As the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its sixth month, Washington appears to be betting that sustained military pressure will fracture Tehran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently suggested that members of the Iranian government had contacted the Trump administration, presenting this as evidence of divisions between officials seeking an agreement and more hardline forces.

Those divisions exist, but Washington may be misreading how war affects them.

For now, external attack has compressed disagreement rather than produced an open rupture.

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