For decades, Hong Kong has faced recurring warnings of its decline as a global financial hub. In February 2024, Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, sparked controversy by declaring that “Hong Kong is over,” citing a mix of domestic and external pressures. Roach emphasized the impact of the 2020 national security law on the city’s political autonomy, the prolonged economic malaise in mainland China, and Hong Kong’s vulnerable position amid Sino-US tensions.

Contrasting this view, the local government and supporters argue that Hong Kong remains resilient. The city led global IPO fundraising last year and ranked third behind New York and London in the latest Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index.

Anthony Cheung, chair professor in public administration at the Education University of Hong Kong, stated, “Hong Kong must adapt to a changing world order.” He highlighted that as Hong Kong’s traditional role as an intermediary between China and global markets diminishes, the city needs to strengthen its institutional advantages to maintain its competitive edge.

The debate underscores a critical question: how can Hong Kong sustain its status as a premier financial center amid shifting capital flows, geopolitical fragmentation, and evolving regulations?

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