As the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran increasingly intersect, what initially appeared to be a geopolitical win for Russia is evolving into an opportunity for Ukraine, according to international security professor Stefan Wolff.

When the war involving Iran erupted, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to be the primary beneficiary. Soaring oil prices, diverted Western attention, and redeployment of US military assets appeared to strengthen Russia's position in its war against Ukraine.

However, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran has prolonged, Ukraine has found ways to extend its strategic influence beyond its borders. On July 25, while global focus was on the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Ukraine struck Iranian cargo ships and their Russian naval escorts in the Caspian Sea, a body of water bordering both Russia and Iran.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported that Russia has been providing new assistance to Iran, including satellite surveillance of four US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait—locations targeted by recent Iranian strikes.

Moscow initially relied on Iranian Shahed-136 drones after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine stalled. The spike in oil and gas prices, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has generated an estimated 200 million barrels in extra revenue-equivalent for Russia, further aided by Washington's easing of sanctions on buyers of Russian oil such as India.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump met with President Zelenskyy in the White House Oval Office in early August, underscoring ongoing international engagement with Ukraine.

These developments illustrate the complex and intertwined nature of the conflicts, challenging Washington's previous approach of treating the Ukraine and Iran wars as separate issues.

Sources