The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy passage, is believed by some to be named after a Zoroastrian deity destined to triumph after a 9,000-year standoff. Iran’s leadership perceives its own imminent victory in controlling this waterway without requiring such prolonged patience.

Iran is leveraging military pressure, aware of the United States’ dwindling stockpiles of advanced weapons like missile interceptors. Tehran anticipates that sustained control over the strait will maintain high petrol and goods prices, influencing the political climate ahead of the US congressional elections in November 2026.

However, Iran also recognizes the risks involved. Attempts to forcibly reopen the strait could be costly and might necessitate deployment of American ground troops. Additionally, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have the potential to expand the conflict and disrupt another significant trade route.

This strategic calculation suggests that Iran expects US President Donald Trump to eventually concede to their control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources

South China Morning Post World, Associated Press

Read more