The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy waterway, is reportedly named after a Zoroastrian deity destined to triumph after a 9,000-year conflict. Iran’s leadership believes its own victory is imminent without the need for such prolonged patience. They are wagering that sustained military pressure will compel the United States to accept Iranian dominance over the strait.

Iran is aware of the United States’ diminishing stockpiles of key weapons, including advanced missile interceptors. They also recognize that as long as the strait remains largely closed, petrol and goods prices will stay elevated ahead of the US congressional elections scheduled for November 2026.

However, Iran acknowledges the risks involved. Attempting to reopen the strait by force could be costly and might necessitate deployment of American ground troops. Additionally, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen could expand the conflict and disrupt another major trade route.

Given these dynamics, Tehran calculates that US President Donald Trump has limited options but to concede to their control.

Sources