The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy passage, is reportedly named after a Zoroastrian deity destined to triumph after a 9,000-year conflict. Iran’s leadership believes their own victory in controlling this strategic waterway is imminent and may not require such prolonged patience.

Iran is leveraging military pressure to compel the United States to accept its control over the strait. Tehran is aware of the declining US stockpiles of advanced missile interceptors and the economic impact of a largely closed strait, which keeps petrol and goods prices high ahead of the US congressional elections scheduled for November 2026.

However, Iran also recognizes the risks involved. Attempts to forcibly open the strait could be costly and might necessitate deployment of American ground troops. Additionally, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen could escalate the conflict, threatening another major trade route.

Given these factors, Iran anticipates that US President Donald Trump may have limited options but to concede to their demands.

Sources

South China Morning Post World, August 8, 2026: Iran thinks it has Trump cornered – but what are the risks?