Last week, the Trump administration indicated a potential deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed due to ongoing conflict. On August 4, President Donald Trump said the deal "could happen tomorrow or the next day," and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent echoed this, stating, "we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position." However, as of August 10, no deal has materialized.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary declared on August 8 that the Strait of Hormuz would only reopen with a permanent end to the war, the lifting of the U.S. blockade and financial sanctions on Iran, and financial compensation—a new demand beyond the June peace memorandum previously signed by both countries. Trump told Axios on August 9 that he is now "only semi-negotiating" with Iran and believes the situation will simply "work out" on its own.

The situation in the strait remains tense. Iran insists on controlling shipping routes through an Iranian-controlled corridor and has been firing on ships that do not comply. Meanwhile, the U.S. is escorting convoys of oil tankers with their radio transponders turned off through a corridor in Omani waters.

Oil flows have significantly decreased, with around 5 million barrels per day passing through the strait on August 7, down from 20 million barrels per day before the war, according to market research service Commodity Context. Rory Johnson, founder of Commodity Context, described the current level of U.S.-backed "dark transits" as "unsustainable," citing insufficient empty tankers entering the Persian Gulf.

The conflict began with a U.S.-Israel surprise attack on February 28, which was expected by its architects to subdue Iran within days or weeks. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed hope on August 8, saying, "God willing, we will reach a point where we can get out of this state of neither war nor peace."

Sources