BANGKOK — Southeast Asia is bracing for a so-called “Super El Nino” event expected to bring severe heat and drought across the region, potentially surpassing the record-setting 1997-1998 El Nino, according to climate scientists and agricultural experts.
Surachai Parunram, a veteran rice and sugarcane farmer from northeast Thailand, expressed deep concern about the unpredictable weather disrupting planting seasons. “It’s hot one moment and raining the next,” the 55-year-old said. “We don't know what to produce because every farmer has debt, and we don't know where our income will come from when there's no water for farming.”
Ming Yi, a physical climate scientist at the National University of Singapore, clarified that the term “super” is not an official scientific classification but reflects the severity of ocean temperatures surging well above normal. Current model simulations indicate the region is on track for a period potentially more intense than the 1997-1998 event.
Areeya Obidiegwu, assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Kasetsart University, expects the severity to increase exponentially. “When Thailand’s summer arrives, temperatures will inevitably surge,” he said. He also warned that after mid-2027, heavy rainfall could return with enough intensity to trigger 100- to 200-year flood events, based on his modeling.
Humanitarian group CARE estimates that 172.3 million people are already at risk of food insecurity in the countries expected to be hardest hit, even before the prolonged drought and heat place additional pressure on crops, incomes, and food supplies.
Governments in Southeast Asia are preparing for these challenges, but experts highlight significant vulnerabilities remain in the region’s ability to cope with the anticipated impacts.
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