JOHANNESBURG — As Iran-backed Houthis intensify threats to shipping in the Red Sea, analysts suggest the United States may consider a significant strategic shift. Recent Houthi attacks reportedly targeted Saudi-flagged vessels and an Indian commercial cargo ship, escalating tensions in this vital maritime chokepoint.

The Houthis have vowed to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal, through which Saudi Arabia exports up to seven million barrels of oil daily. This threat comes as Iranian influence in the Strait of Hormuz diminishes.

In response, Washington may seek closer relations with more dependable partners along Africa's coastline. Somaliland, a pro-U.S. territory that declared independence from Somalia in 1991, offers the U.S. access to one of Africa's longest runways, an air base, and a deep-sea port on the Red Sea.

Major General Ken Ekman, retired Department of War West Africa Coordination Element Lead, stated the Houthis could effectively compel the U.S. to recognize Somaliland as an independent state.

Meanwhile, the U.S. remains committed to Somalia, with Anderson noting the success of Somalia's counterterrorism group DANAB, described as "one of the most capable forces on the continent." Anderson emphasized Somalia's responsibility to sustain and develop this force to continue counterterrorism efforts.

Concerns also exist regarding Djibouti's reliability as an ally, especially as China significantly expands its military and commercial presence there.

Analysts warn that the Houthis are testing U.S. military capabilities and may escalate their actions as Iranian leverage in the region wanes, potentially forcing a new U.S. strategy in Africa. The ongoing conflict underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Red Sea and adjacent regions.

Sources