Less than three months before the midterm election, the Texas Senate race between Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico remains highly competitive. A new poll released on Thursday, August 13, 2026, by Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media shows Paxton polling at 47 percent and Talarico at 46 percent among likely Texas voters, with 5 percent still undecided.
This race has drawn significant attention and funding, becoming one of the most closely watched contests this election cycle. Earlier this year, incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) faced a runoff race, bolstered by a last-minute endorsement from former President Trump.
The Cook Political Report recently adjusted its rating of the Texas Senate race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" following Paxton's nomination.
Other polls show some variation: a Texas Pulse poll released last week indicated Talarico held a 4-point lead over Paxton, while a Fox News poll from late July showed Talarico with 51 percent support compared to Paxton's 48 percent.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey sampled 1,000 likely Texas voters in August, underscoring the tight competition as the election approaches.
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