Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for the Texas Senate, is trailing Democrat James Talarico by two points according to a recent poll conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University. The survey found Talarico leading with 47 percent to Paxton’s 45 percent, a margin within the poll's error range.

The poll also indicated that 6 percent of respondents were undecided, and 2 percent supported other candidates. Favorability ratings showed Talarico viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent of voters, while Paxton’s favorability stood at 39 percent with 57 percent unfavorable. Additionally, 7 and 4 percent of respondents respectively said they did not know enough about Talarico and Paxton to form an opinion.

These results follow a Fox News poll released days earlier that showed Talarico ahead by three points, signaling potential momentum for Democrats in a traditionally Republican state. Decision Desk HQ rates the race as a toss-up but forecasts Paxton as narrowly favored to win and retain the seat for Republicans in the November election.

Paxton has faced several controversies, including a 2023 impeachment in the Texas House on misconduct and bribery charges, though he was acquitted by the state Senate. While Republicans are optimistic that former President Trump’s endorsement will help Paxton, Democrats are hopeful that Paxton’s scandals combined with enthusiasm for Talarico could influence the race.

The Texas Southern University poll also found that Trump is viewed unfavorably by 55 percent of likely Texas voters, compared to 44 percent who view him favorably.

Sources